Although China is making significant inroads in Central Asia as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, Russia remains incredibly important in terms of trade and remittances. Kyrgyzstan still has deep economic ties with Russia. According to political analyst Arkady Dubnov, who was interviewed by Kyrgyz news outlet Kloop about the Kremlin’s invitation to Japarov, Bishkek had no choice but to accept. In many ways, Central Asia still is highly dependent on Russia. Hence, should the Russian president decide to visit the region, as he did so often last year, chances of Central Asian authorities refusing Putin entry because of the arrest warrant are slim. By contrast, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are non-signatory states. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan both signed the treaty some twenty years ago, but have so far failed to ratify it. In Central Asia, Tajikistan is the only state party to the treaty and thus – in theory – bound to cooperate with the Court. South Africa has ratified the founding treaty of the ICC and hence obligated to act should Putin set foot in the country. Last week, South African authorities warned that Putin risks being arrested during the upcoming BRICS summit in August, should the Russian president decide to make an appearance. Recently, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president on allegations relating to the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied areas to Russia. Yet, this will be the first time for Central Asian leaders that they share the stage with the Russian president after he was charged with war crimes. While the Russian president is increasingly cornered internationally, Moscow clearly holds on tight to its few remaining allies.
In 2022 alone, Putin visited all five countries in the region – something that had not happened in a long time. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has paid significantly more attention to Central Asia.
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